Discounted payback period adalah periode pengembalian investasi yang dimodifikasi dari payback period. Untuk memahami discounted payback period ini, tentu kita harus terlebih dahulu memahami, apa itu payback period dan bagaimana cara perhitungan payback period.
Payback period adalah waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk pengembalian modal investasi. Seorang investor yang ditawarkan sebuah proyek tentu akan memperhitungkan berapa lama waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk mengembalikan modal, dan itu pastinya akan sangat tergantung sangat tergantung pada proyeksi pendapatan yang dihasilkan dengan dengan menggunakan modal investasi tersebut. Semakin besar proyeksi atau peramalan pendapatan, maka semakin sedikit waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk mengembalikan modal yang diinvestasikan. Ini menjadi salah satu ukuran paling umum bagi seorang investor untuk menilai apakah sebuah proyek layak dijalankan atau tidak.
Bagaimana menghitung payback periode ?
Menghitung payback period sebenarnya cukup sederhana, dengan cara membagi modal yang diinvestasikan dengan aliran kas bersih yang masuk setiap periode. Ukuran periode ini bisa perbulan, per 3 bulan, per 6 bulan, ataupun pertahun, tergantung penilaian mana yang akan dijadikan acuan, dengan catatan bahwasanya aliran kas bersih yang masuk ini, nilainya sama setiap periodenya. Rumusnya dapat dituliskan sebagai berikut:
Payback Period = Modal Investasi Awal / Kas Masuk Bersih
Contoh, sebuah perusahaan mempertimbangkan untuk membeli mesin agar dapat meningkatkan jumlah produksi agar dapat memenuhi permintaan yang semakin meningkat. Harga mesin tersebut adalah sebesar Rp 450 juta. Proyeksi keuntungan bersih yang bisa didapatkan dengan penambahan mesin baru tersebut adalah sebesar Rp 150 juta pertahun. Maka payback periode dapat dihitung sbb:
Payback Period = Rp 450 juta / Rp 150 juta = 3,0
Payback periode dihasilkan adalah 3,0 artinya dibutuhkan waktu 3 untuk mengembalikan modal investasi untuk membeli mesin produksi tersebut. Cara menghitung payback periode seperti itu adalah yang paling sederhana dengan proyeksi pendaptan tetap, lantas bagaiman dengan proyeksi pendapatan yang selalu berubah-ubah karena pengaruh siklus bisnis yang berubah?
Tentu saja metode seperti di atas tidak bisa digunakan, harus ada dihitung berdasarkan proyeksi pendapatan yang berubah setiap periodenya. Misalkan kita buat contoh seperti kondisi di atas. Umur ekonomis mesin diperkirakan 5 tahun dengan syarat pengembalian investasi paling lama adalah 3 tahun, sementara untuk proyeksi pendapatan arus kas bersih setiap tahunnya adalah:
Payback Perod = n + (a-b) / (c-b) x 1 tahun
dimana:
n : Tahun terakhir saat jumlah arus kas masih belum mampu menutup investasi mula-mula
a : Jumlah investasi awal
b : Jumlah investasi arus kas pada tahun ke-n
c : Jumlah kumulatif arus kas pada tahun ke-n + 1
Terlebih dahulu, hitung arus kas kumulatifnya
Lantas bagaimana perhitungan discounted payback period ?
Nah, discounted payback periode adalah versi modifikasi dari payback period, yaitu mengukur waktu pengembalian investasi pada tingkat bunga atau yield yang diharapkan oleh investor. Metode ini menggunakan pendekatan time value of money untuk mendapatkan nilai saat ini dari potensi arus kas yang akan diterima di masa depan selama periode investasi. Caranya masih menggunakan perhitungan payback period kumulatif seperti di atas, dengansatu langkah tambahan, yaitu menghitung nilai sekarang dari arus kas per periode. Rumusnya sbb:
Nilai sekarang dari arus kas = Arus Kas periode ke-n x 1/(1+i) pangkat n
- Tahun 1 = Rp 200 juta
- Tahun 2 = Rp 190 juta
- Tahun 3 = Rp 180 juta
- Tahun 4 = Rp 170 juta
- Tahun 5 = Rp 150 juta
Payback Perod = n + (a-b) / (c-b) x 1 tahun
dimana:
n : Tahun terakhir saat jumlah arus kas masih belum mampu menutup investasi mula-mula
a : Jumlah investasi awal
b : Jumlah investasi arus kas pada tahun ke-n
c : Jumlah kumulatif arus kas pada tahun ke-n + 1
Terlebih dahulu, hitung arus kas kumulatifnya
- Arus kas kumulatif tahun ke-1 Rp 200 juta
- Arus kas kumulatif tahun ke-2 Rp 200 juta + Rp 190 juta = Rp 380 juta
- Arus kas kumulatif tahun ke-3 Rp 380 juta + Rp 180 juta = Rp 560 juta
- Arus kas kumulatif tahun ke-4 Rp 560 juta + Rp 170 juta = Rp 710 juta
- Arus kas kumulatif tahun ke-5 Rp 710 juta + Rp 150 juta = Rp 860 juta
- a = Rp 450 juta
- b = Rp 380 juta
- c = Rp 560 juta
- n = 2 tahun
Lantas bagaimana perhitungan discounted payback period ?
Nah, discounted payback periode adalah versi modifikasi dari payback period, yaitu mengukur waktu pengembalian investasi pada tingkat bunga atau yield yang diharapkan oleh investor. Metode ini menggunakan pendekatan time value of money untuk mendapatkan nilai saat ini dari potensi arus kas yang akan diterima di masa depan selama periode investasi. Caranya masih menggunakan perhitungan payback period kumulatif seperti di atas, dengansatu langkah tambahan, yaitu menghitung nilai sekarang dari arus kas per periode. Rumusnya sbb:
Nilai sekarang dari arus kas = Arus Kas periode ke-n x 1/(1+i) pangkat n
dimana:
i – tingkat penghasilan (yield) atau bunga per tahun
n – tahun investasi
Kita ambil contoh untuk suku bunga yang diharapkan oleh investor adalah sebesar 12% p.a, maka:
i – tingkat penghasilan (yield) atau bunga per tahun
n – tahun investasi
Kita ambil contoh untuk suku bunga yang diharapkan oleh investor adalah sebesar 12% p.a, maka:
- Arus kas tahun ke-1 Rp 200 juta x 0.8929 = 178,58
- Arus kas tahun ke-2 Rp 190 juta x 0.7272 = Rp 151, 468 juta
- Arus kas tahun ke-3 Rp 180 juta x 0.7118 = Rp 128,124 juta
- Arus kas tahun ke-4 Rp 170 juta x 0.6355 = Rp 108, 035 juta
- Arus kas tahun ke-5 Rp 150 juta x 0.5674 = Rp 85,11 juta
- Arus kas kumulatif tahun ke-1 Rp 178,58 juta
- Arus kas kumulatif tahun ke-2 Rp 178,58 juta + Rp 151,468 juta = Rp 330,048 juta
- Arus kas kumulatif tahun ke-3 Rp 330,048 juta + Rp 128,124 juta = Rp 457,172 juta
- Arus kas kumulatif tahun ke-4 Rp 457,172 juta + Rp 108,035 juta = Rp 565,207 juta
- Arus kas kumulatif tahun ke-5 Rp 565,207 juta + Rp 85,11 juta = Rp 650,317 juta
- a = Rp 450 juta
- b = Rp 330,048 juta
- c = Rp 547,172 juta
- n = 2 tahun
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