Tren adalah kecenderungan gerak harga, apakah menaik ataukah menurun, jadi kalau dipertanyakan apakah tren itu ada, tentu ada. Ketika Anda melihat serangkaian harga bergerak dengan harga tinggi yang semakin meninggi (higher high), dan harga rendah yang semakin tinggi (higher low), maka itu adalah tren menaik atau disebut dengan “uptrend”. Sebaliknya ketika anda melihat serangkaian harga bergerak dengan harga rendah yang semakin rendah (lower low), dan harga tinggi yang semakin rendah (lower high), maka itu adalah tren menurun atau disebut dengan “downtrend”.
Semasa pergerakan dan laju tren, tentu dapat terjadi riak-riak kecil penelusuran kembali harga ke level-level yang dijalani sebelumnya. Kondisi ini disebut dengan penelurusan kembali atau “correction” Dalam hal ini, mungkin Anda harus melihat deret harga kelompok bukan secara tunggal seperti pembacaan kandil di atas.
Beda kerangka waktu beda tren
Pada kerangka waktu pengamatan yang berbeda tentu riak pergerakan harga akan berbeda. Ini akan memberikan persepsi berbeda tentang tren dari harga. Ketika kerangka waktu panjang seperti pengamatan harian atau 4 jam-an memberi kondisi bullish trend maka riak-riak kecil dapat terjadi semasa pergerakan tren yang berlangsung. Anda dapat membaca riak kecil ini secara tunggal pada kerangka waktu tersebut, dan pada kerangka waktu pengamatan yang lebih rendah seperti 15 menitan, mungkin Anda akan melihat arah koreksi yang membentuk tren yang mungkin berlawanan dengan tren dasar di kerangka waktu yang lebih besar tersebut, dan dikerangka waktu yang lebih kecil seperti 5 atau 1 menit mungkin Anda akan melihat tren yang sejalan dengan tren dasar sebagai koreksi dari tren yang lebih tinggi 1 level di atasnya seperti 15 menitan.
Bagaimana cara menentukan tren?
Maka ini akan sangat tergantung pada tipikal trader Anda, apakah trader jangka pendek, menengah atau panjang. Trader jangka panjang misalkan, cara menentukan tren umumnya melihat kerangka waktu panjang minimal kandil harian tergantung panjang waktunya, semakin panjang maka kerangka waktu akan dinaikkan seperti mingguan atau bulanan. Untuk alat konfirmasi pengambilan keputusan trading, maka akan digunakan kerangka waktu yang lebih pendek di bawahnya seperti 1 jam-an atau 15 menitan tergantung selera dari trader itu sendiri.
Pada kerangka waktu pengamatan yang berbeda tentu riak pergerakan harga akan berbeda. Ini akan memberikan persepsi berbeda tentang tren dari harga. Ketika kerangka waktu panjang seperti pengamatan harian atau 4 jam-an memberi kondisi bullish trend maka riak-riak kecil dapat terjadi semasa pergerakan tren yang berlangsung. Anda dapat membaca riak kecil ini secara tunggal pada kerangka waktu tersebut, dan pada kerangka waktu pengamatan yang lebih rendah seperti 15 menitan, mungkin Anda akan melihat arah koreksi yang membentuk tren yang mungkin berlawanan dengan tren dasar di kerangka waktu yang lebih besar tersebut, dan dikerangka waktu yang lebih kecil seperti 5 atau 1 menit mungkin Anda akan melihat tren yang sejalan dengan tren dasar sebagai koreksi dari tren yang lebih tinggi 1 level di atasnya seperti 15 menitan.
Bagaimana cara menentukan tren?
Maka ini akan sangat tergantung pada tipikal trader Anda, apakah trader jangka pendek, menengah atau panjang. Trader jangka panjang misalkan, cara menentukan tren umumnya melihat kerangka waktu panjang minimal kandil harian tergantung panjang waktunya, semakin panjang maka kerangka waktu akan dinaikkan seperti mingguan atau bulanan. Untuk alat konfirmasi pengambilan keputusan trading, maka akan digunakan kerangka waktu yang lebih pendek di bawahnya seperti 1 jam-an atau 15 menitan tergantung selera dari trader itu sendiri.
Untuk trader jangka menengah atau pendek, tentunya menggunakan kerangka waktu yang lebih singkat seperti pada timeframe H4 atau H1 dengan konfirmasi entry menggunakan timeframe yagn lebih rendah seperti M15 atau M5 dengan metoda dan teknik yang dimiliki masing-masing trader. Sekali lagi ekspektasi tren tentu akan berbeda dari satu dengan lainnya tergantung kerangka waktu dan panjang data pengamatan yang menjadi acuan.
Beberapa alat pemetaan tren adalah seperti menggunakan garis tren atau “trendline” dengan menyambungkan menggunakan garis setiap fractal dari harga tinggi yang semakin tinggi dan rendah yang semakin meninggi untuk tren naik, dan rendah yang semakin rendah dan tinggi yang semakin rendah untuk tren menurun. Tools lainnya yang tak kalah populernya dalam menentukan tren adalah menggunakan garis rata-rata bergerak atau “moving average” dari sekelompok data yang diamati pergerakan tren nya. Beberapa alat identifikasi yang tak kalah populer seperti pita bollinger, envelopes ataupun parabolic sar, dan lain sebagainya sesuai dengan metoda dan teknik sistem yang digunakan.
Beberapa alat pemetaan tren adalah seperti menggunakan garis tren atau “trendline” dengan menyambungkan menggunakan garis setiap fractal dari harga tinggi yang semakin tinggi dan rendah yang semakin meninggi untuk tren naik, dan rendah yang semakin rendah dan tinggi yang semakin rendah untuk tren menurun. Tools lainnya yang tak kalah populernya dalam menentukan tren adalah menggunakan garis rata-rata bergerak atau “moving average” dari sekelompok data yang diamati pergerakan tren nya. Beberapa alat identifikasi yang tak kalah populer seperti pita bollinger, envelopes ataupun parabolic sar, dan lain sebagainya sesuai dengan metoda dan teknik sistem yang digunakan.
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