Super Bowl Trading Strategy, dari namanya Anda mungkin mengira ini adalah sebuah sistem trading dengan sekumpulan indikator canggih yang bisa memunculkan sinyal kapan harus buy dan dan sell seperti yang banyak Anda temukan diberbagai forum atau situs trading. Tapi tidak, ini adalah strategi trading saham yang mungkin tidak pernah Anda bayangkan sebelumnya. Strategi trading saham Super Bowl memanfaatkan momentum kemenangan salah satu team super bowl di negara Amerika untuk meramalkan pasar saham di tahun yang akan datang. Kedengarannya cukup aneh bukan...
Super bowl adalah american football atau olahraga bola sepak negara Amerika Serikat. Ini lebih dari sekedar pertandingan olahraga. Ada banyak bisnis di dalamnya termasuk industri hiburan, fashion, bahkan sampai pada politik. Jutaan pasang mata warga Amerika akan tertuju pada perhelatan olahraga yang sudah seperti budaya ini, di bulan Februari setiap tahunnya.
Kembali lagi soal strategi trading super bowl...
Premis strategi trading saham Super Bowl didasarkan pada menang kalah salah satu dari dua team super bowl. Ada barometer saham yang tidak ilmiah yang menyatakan bahwa jika tim National Football League's American Football Conference (AFC) memenangkan final super bowl maka di tahun berikutnya pasar saham akan bearish, sementara jika yang menang adalah National Football Conference (NFC) atau tim dari National Football League, maka pasar saham di tahun berikutnya akan bullish, dan bahkan untuk itu Leonard Koppett, seorang jurnalis olahraga untuk The New York Times, menciptakan sebuah indikator yang diberi nama indikator Super Bowl pada tahun 1979.
Beberapa kali indikator ini mencatatkan hasil yang cukup mencengangkan, dengan kebenaran sampai dengan 90% ketika melakukan prediksi terhadap naik turunnya Standard & Poor's 500 antara tahun 1998-2001, namun antara 2016-2017 peramalan indikator Super Bowl meleset, seharusnya pasar saham bearish malah bullish. Di tahun 2008 juga, kemenangan team New York Giants (NFC) seharusnya pasar bullish, tapi pasar malah bearish dan malah menjadi penurunan saham terbesar sejak terjadinya Great Depression.
Strategi trading saham Super Bowl ini boleh dikatakan unik. Ini seperti hitung-hitungan kancing baju, karena secara logika dari mana korelasi kemenangan sebuah team super bowl terhadap pergerakan turun naiknya harga saham. Walaupun histori membuktikan akurasi ketepatan ramalan super bowl sejauh ini di atas 70%, tapi boleh dikatakan itu adalah sebagai murni kebetulan belaka, HOKI DOANG, ibarat Anda melempar koin, bisa saja yang muncul adalah terus sesuai dengan prediksi Anda, tapi tidak itu tidak bisa dibuktikan secara ilmiah, hanya probabilitas dari sebuah tebak-tebakan.
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